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TailRisk - Early warnings in tech, finance and geopolitics
Risk in tech, finance and geopolitics
Sep
25

Frequency Analysis #9: Casinos, IPOs and hacking woes

Sorry for the delay this week. I had an infection and getting out the piece on risk aversion (please do
5 min read
Sep
22

Violent Delights Have Violent Ends

Nicolo Machiavelli famously asked "Whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved?" The often repeated
15 min read
Sep
15

Frequency Analysis #8: Risk controls, casino hacks and political leverage

It is often said about risk that the riskiest thing one can do is nothing at all. It is true
5 min read
Sep
14

The Measure You Use Will Be Measured to You

Up to this point, we have taken it for granted that economic growth approximates human progress. Last week's discussion of
11 min read
Sep
08

Frequency Analysis #7: Energy season, diverse disclosures and red teams

Over on the progress side of Tail Risk, we've made it to the cultural explanations of stagnation. Culture is a
4 min read
Sep
07

The Tyrant Custom

Last week's missive on progress concluded with two remaining natural explanations for stagnation. These were the demographic and resource depletion
8 min read
Sep
01

Frequency Analysis #6: Feedback loops in finance and tech

"Nature abhors a vacuum," Aristotle postulated. It's the last weekend of unofficial summer and as kids return to school, finance
5 min read
Aug
31

There Is No Wealth But Life

Talk to nearly anyone about the decline of growth in the the last 50 years and you'll likely get two
10 min read
Aug
25

Frequency Analysis #5: Crashes, Cuts and Hacks

In 19th and early 20th centuries New York City two waves of immigration rapidly changed the city. Every decade from
4 min read
Aug
23

Every Tree Is Known by Its Fruit

Last week wrapped up the manmade causes of stagnation (underfunding, inequality, rentier capitalism, government overreach) by emphasizing the danger of
12 min read